Here is the uncomfortable question MGM Resorts shareholders are sitting with this morning: if Barry Diller thought the stock was cheap enough at $48.30 to make an offer in June, what does it mean now that the same company trades at $34?
People Inc. rescinded its proposal to buy MGM Resorts International, sending shares of the casino giant down roughly 10% on Thursday. Reuters reported that the withdrawal was tied to financing complexity, meaning the move reflects a financing problem, not a change in MGM’s underlying businesses.
The Discount Is Striking
Industry analysts described the current valuation of under $34 per share, down from a high of over $50 just a few months ago, as a striking discount for a company with quality assets in Las Vegas, regional America, and Macau. With the current share price suggesting MGM is valued at about 3.7x its estimated 2026 EBITDA, it trades well below the broader gaming peer group.
Be careful with same-day comparisons: the market backdrop can move around, and Caesars does not need to match the S&P 500 tick-for-tick for this to be deal-driven. But the broader point still stands. The selloff looks like a premium evaporating, not a business deteriorating.
Three Assets the Stock Price Ignores
Start with BetMGM. MGM says its portfolio encompasses 31 unique hotel and gaming destinations globally and it owns 50% of BetMGM, a sports betting and online gaming platform, in a joint venture with U.K. gambling operator Entain. BetMGM reported Q2 2026 net revenue of approximately $711 million, up 3% year over year. For the first half of 2026, net revenue was approximately $1.4 billion, up 4%. More importantly, H1 adjusted EBITDA reached $99 million, a meaningful shift from an operation that burned cash for years on customer acquisition.
Then there is Japan. Analysts have pointed to the roughly $10 billion MGM Osaka development in Japan, noting that investors have been reluctant to assign it much value in MGM’s share price. One complicating detail: MGM’s economics are not a fixed 40%. In its filings, MGM disclosed its MGM Osaka ownership interest had dropped to about 39% after April 2026 equity funding, and later funding could move that number again. The timeline still calls for a 2030 opening.
Finally, capital returns. During Q2 2026, MGM repurchased approximately 4 million shares for $164 million. The company had approximately $1.4 billion of remaining authorization under its April 2025 repurchase plan as of June 30, 2026. With the deal uncertainty now clarified, that firepower can deploy again at $34, well below where management was buying earlier in the year.
The Risks Are Real
None of this is riskless. Las Vegas demand can soften at the value end, and MGM’s own Q2 2026 disclosures showed Strip occupancy flat year over year in the second quarter and average daily rates down 4%. The Japan resort timeline could be subject to delays, partner disagreements, political, or geographic risks.
And People Inc., sitting on about 66.8 million shares, remains an overhang. People has said it remains open to a strategic transaction with MGM and intends to review its investment on a continuing basis. A motivated seller with roughly 27% would reshape the picture quickly.
Earlier this week, Caesars Entertainment shareholders approved billionaire Tilman Fertitta’s proposed acquisition of the casino company. Under the merger agreement, Caesars shareholders would receive $31 per share in cash in a deal valued at approximately $17.6 billion, including assumed debt. That deal closing without MGM’s own takeout keeps a spotlight on casino consolidation, and keeps MGM in play.
What to Watch
The thesis lives or dies on three numbers: BetMGM’s EBITDA trajectory into 2027, the pace of MGM’s share repurchase, and any update on Osaka construction milestones. On Wall Street, the average analyst price target sits in the mid-$50s. At $34, that gap is wide enough to demand attention.
Diller called MGM’s future “undimmed.” The stock is priced as if it is.
