Hey there, bargain hunter.
This one is different from your usual earnings trade. What happened on June 22 wasn’t a miss or a guidance cut. It was a government action targeting two companies by name, in a sector that runs through virtually everything the modern economy depends on.
China escalated its trade fight with Washington on June 22, 2026, when its Ministry of Commerce added 10 US companies to its export control list, including the two rare-earth companies the US government has backed to cut reliance on China: MP Materials (NYSE: MP) and USA Rare Earth (Nasdaq: USAR).
Here’s what makes this different from the usual geopolitical noise. These weren’t random targets.
These aren’t random companies. They’re the two firms Washington has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into specifically to reduce American dependence on Chinese rare earths. Beijing didn’t flinch at the symbolism. It went straight at the solution.
Why rare earths actually matter
Rare earths are the 17 metallic elements that make modern technology possible. They go into everything from fighter jet guidance systems to EV motors to the magnets inside your phone. China controls roughly 60% of global rare earth mining.
That number understates the real problem. China controls about 91% of rare earth separation and refining output, a share that has remained extremely high even as Western governments push diversification. Mining the ore is one thing. Processing it is another. China owns the whole stack.
Rare earths are critical inputs for EVs, semiconductors, defense systems, and advanced manufacturing. Any disruption to supply chains for these materials creates cost pressures across multiple sectors.
What both companies are actually building
MP Materials is further along. MP Materials operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only active rare earth mine in the United States. The company’s strategic importance to national security has translated into substantial government support, including Department of Defense-backed initiatives to expand domestic magnet capacity.
MP Materials has said it expects to begin sales of finished magnets to General Motors in 2026 from its Independence facility in Fort Worth, Texas. This milestone marks the company’s transition from a concentrate producer to a downstream manufacturer of high-value rare earth magnets. The margin implications are substantial: finished magnets command prices multiple times higher than raw concentrates.
That’s the inflection point right there. Not a mine. A manufacturer.
MP Materials reported record NdPr production in Q1 2026. The company is also progressing magnet manufacturing at Independence and has disclosed long-term agreements tied to customers including Apple and General Motors.
USA Rare Earth is earlier stage. The company commissioned Phase 1a of its Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet manufacturing facility in March 2026, positioning it to begin fulfilling customer orders in Q2 2026. USA Rare Earth also operates a metals and alloys business via its Less Common Metals (LCM) subsidiary.
Is the market pricing this right?
MP shares trade around $50-$60. According to a widely-cited consensus tally, 18 analysts rate MP stock a ‘Strong Buy,’ with an average 12-month price target around $80.44. Wedbush has published targets as high as $100.
The curbs may be mostly symbolic in the near term, depending on each company’s direct sourcing from China. But the longer-term read matters more.
For investors, the action matters less for any single day’s price move than for what it signals: the companies meant to reduce US dependence on Chinese rare earths are now themselves targets in the dispute, and the broader supply-chain pressure that runs through defense, electric vehicles, and semiconductors remains firmly in place.
What to track from here
- MP magnet sales from Fort Worth in 2026 (the margin story starts there)
- Pentagon procurement deadlines for domestic rare earth content in defense applications
- USA Rare Earth utilization ramp at its Stillwater, Oklahoma facility
- G7 commitment to diversify so that no single country supplies more than 60% of rare earth and permanent magnet imports by 2030
The geopolitical noise around these two names will keep generating headlines. But the underlying story is structural.
Someone has to fill that gap. Right now, there are exactly two publicly traded American companies trying to do it.
