SAO PAULO, Feb 25 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads all first-round scenarios for October’s election but has seen his advantage over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential run-off disappear, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed on Wednesday.
FIRST ROUND
* Leftist Lula would take between 43% and 47% of the vote infive simulated first-round scenarios with different opponents. * Right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is seentaking between 33% and 40% in four different scenarios.
RUN-OFF
* Lula and Flavio are virtually tied in a potential run-off,with 46.2% and 46.3%, respectively. * In a January poll, Lula led the senator 49.2%-44.9%,already down from a 12-point edge in December. * Lula would beat six other potential opponents but losenarrowly to Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas.
ADDITIONAL CONTEXT
* Markets have tracked polls closely since imprisoned formerPresident Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son Flavio sentBrazil’s currency and equities sliding in December, as investorshad expected him to back a more market-friendly name such asFreitas. * The 80-year-old Lula, who defeated the elder Bolsonaro in2022, will seek a fourth nonconsecutive term as president. * In Brazil, if no candidate gets more than 50% of validvotes, the two frontrunners go to a second-round vote, which hashappened in every election since 2002. * AtlasIntel surveyed 4,986 people between February 19-24.The poll has a margin of error of 1 percentage point in eitherdirection.
(Reporting by Fernando Cardoso; Editing by Gabriel Araujo and Nivedita Bhattacharjee)
